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Mabadiliko ya tabianchi Mashariki ya Kati na Afrika Kaskazini

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Mabadiliko ya tabianchi Mashariki ya Kati na Afrika Kaskazini (MENA Middle East and North Africa) ni makala inayoelezea mabadiliko ya tabianchi ya eneo la Mashariki ya Kati na kaskazini mwa Afrika pamoja na mikakati ya baadaye ya namna ya kukabiliana na hali ya mabadiliko hayo. [1]

Matokeo ya mabadiliko

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Mabadiliko hayo yanaonekana hasa katika

  • kupanda kwa halijoto; idadi za siku zenyo joto la juu imeshaongezeka mara mbili kazi ya 1970 na 2016.[2] Utafiti wa kisayansi unatabiri kwamba vipindi vya joto kali vitatokea kwa siku 80 za mwaka mnamo 2050 na siku 118 za mwaka manmo 2100.[3] Pamoja na kuongezeka kwa dhoruba za mchanga na vipindi virefu vya ukame sehemu kubwa za MENA zinaweza kugeukia kuwa kiadui kwa maisha ya kibinadamu.
  • uhaba wa maji: tayari leo maji ni haba sana katika nchi za MENA.[4] Benki ya Dunia inafafanua eneo kuwa na changamoto ya maji kama akiba ya maji iko chini ya mita za ujao 1700 kwa mwaka kwa kila mkazi wa eneo.[5] Utafiti wa Shirika la Mpango wa Chakula Duniani (WFP) inatabiri kwamba kiasi cha mvua itapungua zaidi na kusababisha kushuka kwa mavuno kwa asilimia 30 hadi mwaka 2050.[6] Mabadiliko hayo yataathiri sana jumuiya zote zinazotegemea kilimo.
  • kupanda kwa usawa bahari wastani: katika nchi za MENA, watu milioni 60 hukalia maeneo karibu na pwani la bahari. Hadi mwaka 2030 idadi hii inatabiriwa kufikia miloni 100.[7][8] Kupanda kwa usawa bahari wastani kutasababisha mafuriko na bahari kuenea hadi sehemu zinazokaliwa na binadamu. Nchi itakayoathiriwa zaidi ni Misri. Leo hii sehemu kubwa za mji wa Aleksandria [9] na theluthi moja ya delta ya mto Nile ni nchi iliyopo kidogo juu ya usawa bahari wastani na wakati wa dhoruba maji yanaingia tayri kwenye nchi kavu. Kupanda kwa usawa wa bahari kwa mita moja kungezamisha asilimia 12-15 za ardhi ya mashamba ya Misri kwenye bahari[10] na kulazimisha wakazi milioni 6-7 kuhama. Hata kupanda kwa sentimita 50 pekee kungelazimisha watu milioni 2 kuhama.

Michango ya nchi za MENA kwa uzalishaji wa gesi chafu

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Mnamo 2018, eneo la MENA lilitoa tani bilioni 3.2 za kaboni dioksidi na 8.7% ya uzalishaji wa gesi chafu duniani (GHG) [11] licha ya kuwa na asilimia 6 pekee ya watu duniani. [12]

Uzalishaji huu mara nyingi unatoka kwenye viwanda vya nishati, [13] kwa kua sehemu ya nchi nyingi za Mashariki ya Kati na Afrika Kaskazini kuwa na hifadhi kubwa ya mafuta na gesi asilia ambayo hupatikana katika maeneo aya. [14] [15] Eneo la Mashariki ya Kati ni mojawapo ya maeneo yaliyo hatarini zaidi kwa mabadiliko ya hali ya hewa. Athari hizo ni pamoja na kuongezeka kwa hali ya ukame, Wimbi la joto|hali ya joto na kuongezeka kwa kina cha bahari.

Marejeo

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  1. ↑ Olawuyi, Damilola (31 Julai 2021). Climate Change Law and Policy in the Middle East and North Africa Region (tol. la 1st). London: Routledge. ku. 1–340. ISBN 9780367490324. Iliwekwa mnamo 26 Septemba 2021.{{cite book}}: CS1 maint: date auto-translated (link)
  2. ↑ Lelieveld, J.; Proestos, Y.; Hadjinicolaou, P.; Tanarhte, M.; Tyrlis, E.; Zittis, G. (2016-04-23). "Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century". Climatic Change. 137 (1–2): 245–260. Bibcode:2016ClCh..137..245L. doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1665-6. ISSN 0165-0009.
  3. ↑ Lelieveld, J.; Proestos, Y.; Hadjinicolaou, P.; Tanarhte, M.; Tyrlis, E.; Zittis, G. (2016-04-23). "Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century". Climatic Change. 137 (1–2): 245–260. Bibcode:2016ClCh..137..245L. doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1665-6. ISSN 0165-0009.
  4. ↑ Hofste, Rutger Willem; Reig, Paul; Schleifer, Leah (2019-08-06). "17 Countries, Home to One-Quarter of the World's Population, Face Extremely High Water Stress". World Resources Institute (kwa Kiingereza). Iliwekwa mnamo 2020-04-24.
  5. ↑ "International Decade for Action 'Water for Life' 2005-2015. Focus Areas: Water scarcity". www.un.org (kwa Kiingereza). Iliwekwa mnamo 2020-04-24.
  6. ↑ Devereux, Stephen (Desemba 2015). "Social Protection and Safety Nets in the Middle East and North Africa" (PDF). Institute of Development Studies. 2015 (80). Iliwekwa mnamo 15 Mei 2020.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: date auto-translated (link)
  7. ↑ Waha, Katharina; Krummenauer, Linda; Adams, Sophie; Aich, Valentin; Baarsch, Florent; Coumou, Dim; Fader, Marianela; Hoff, Holger; Jobbins, Guy; Marcus, Rachel; Mengel, Matthias (2017-04-12). "Climate change impacts in the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) region and their implications for vulnerable population groups" (PDF). Regional Environmental Change. 17 (6): 1623–1638. doi:10.1007/s10113-017-1144-2. ISSN 1436-3798. S2CID 134523218.
  8. ↑ "Climate change adaptation and natural disasters preparedness in the coastal cities of North Africa : phase 2 : adaptation and resilience action plan –alexandria area". World Bank (kwa Kiingereza). Iliwekwa mnamo 2023-01-05.
  9. ↑ Broom, Douglas. "How the Middle East is suffering on the front lines of climate change". World Economic Forum. Iliwekwa mnamo 4 Februari 2020.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: date auto-translated (link)
  10. ↑ Sivakumar, Mannava V. K.; Ruane, Alex C.; Camacho, Jose (2013), "Climate Change in the West Asia and North Africa Region", Climate Change and Food Security in West Asia and North Africa, Springer Netherlands, ku. 3–26, doi:10.1007/978-94-007-6751-5_1, ISBN 978-94-007-6750-8
  11. ↑ "[[:Kigezo:CO2]] Emissions | Global Carbon Atlas". www.globalcarbonatlas.org. Iliwekwa mnamo 2020-04-10. {{cite web}}: URL–wikilink conflict (help)
  12. ↑ "Population, total - Middle East & North Africa, World | Data". data.worldbank.org. Iliwekwa mnamo 2020-04-11.
  13. ↑ Abbass, Rana Alaa; Kumar, Prashant; El-Gendy, Ahmed (Februari 2018). "An overview of monitoring and reduction strategies for health and climate change related emissions in the Middle East and North Africa region" (PDF). Atmospheric Environment. 175: 33–43. Bibcode:2018AtmEn.175...33A. doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2017.11.061. ISSN 1352-2310.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: date auto-translated (link)
  14. ↑ Al-mulali, Usama (2011-10-01). "Oil consumption, [[:Kigezo:CO2]] emission and economic growth in MENA countries". Energy (kwa Kiingereza). 36 (10): 6165–6171. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2011.07.048. ISSN 0360-5442. {{cite journal}}: URL–wikilink conflict (help)
  15. ↑ Tagliapietra, Simone (2019-11-01). "The impact of the global energy transition on MENA oil and gas producers". Energy Strategy Reviews (kwa Kiingereza). 26: 100397. doi:10.1016/j.esr.2019.100397. ISSN 2211-467X.
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